Metric methodology
How does FillScope calculate trading expectancy?
The current FillScope API defines expectancy as the average realized result of the imported trade rows in the selected view.
What is the current expectancy formula?
FillScope expectancy is the average FIFO realized P&L per imported trade row for the active filters. In compact form: expectancy = Σ FIFO realized P&L / imported trade-row count.
Is this the win-rate formula?
It is mathematically compatible with a weighted win/loss view when the same rows and definitions are used, but the production API calculates the direct average. Win rate, average win, average loss, profit factor, and expectancy remain separate metrics.
What changes the number?
Date, symbol, asset category, side, imported statement coverage, and broker row granularity can change the selected population. A refreshed Flex report may also update a matching row. Compare expectancy only when filters and row definitions are held constant.
Does positive expectancy predict profit?
No. It describes the imported sample. It can be dominated by a few outliers, distorted by short history or missing data, and changed by regime, costs, slippage, currency treatment, and future behavior. It is not a forecast, trading signal, or financial advice.